Machine learning cosmological structure formation

We train a machine learning algorithm to learn cosmological structure formation from N-body simulations. The algorithm infers the relationship between the initial conditions and the final dark matter haloes, without the need to introduce approximate halo collapse models. We gain insights into the physics driving halo formation by evaluating the predictive performance of the algorithm when provided with different types of information about the local environment around dark matter particles. The algorithm learns to predict whether or not dark matter particles will end up in haloes of a given mass range, based on spherical overdensities. We show that the resulting predictions match those of spherical collapse approximations such as extended Press-Schechter theory. Additional information on the shape of the local gravitational potential is not able to improve halo collapse predictions; the linear density field contains sufficient information for the algorithm to also reproduce ellipsoidal collapse predictions based on the Sheth-Tormen model. We investigate the algorithm's performance in terms of halo mass and radial position and perform blind analyses on independent initial conditions realisations to demonstrate the generality of our results.Comment: 10 pages, 7 figures. Minor changes to match version published in MNRAS. Accepted on 22/06/201

Extending BEAMS to incorporate correlated systematic uncertainties

New supernova surveys such as the Dark Energy Survey, Pan-STARRS and the LSST will produce an unprecedented number of photometric supernova candidates, most with no spectroscopic data. Avoiding biases in cosmological parameters due to the resulting inevitable contamination from non-Ia supernovae can be achieved with the BEAMS formalism, allowing for fully photometric supernova cosmology studies. Here we extend BEAMS to deal with the case in which the supernovae are correlated by systematic uncertainties. The analytical form of the full BEAMS posterior requires evaluating 2^N terms, where N is the number of supernova candidates. This `exponential catastrophe' is computationally unfeasible even for N of order 100. We circumvent the exponential catastrophe by marginalising numerically instead of analytically over the possible supernova types: we augment the cosmological parameters with nuisance parameters describing the covariance matrix and the types of all the supernovae, \tau_i, that we include in our MCMC analysis. We show that this method deals well even with large, unknown systematic uncertainties without a major increase in computational time, whereas ignoring the correlations can lead to significant biases and incorrect credible contours. We then compare the numerical marginalisation technique with a perturbative expansion of the posterior based on the insight that future surveys will have exquisite light curves and hence the probability that a given candidate is a Type Ia will be close to unity or zero, for most objects. Although this perturbative approach changes computation of the posterior from a 2^N problem into an N^2 or N^3 one, we show that it leads to biases in general through a small number of misclassifications, implying that numerical marginalisation is superior.Comment: Resubmitted under married name Lochner (formally Knights). Version 3: major changes, including a large scale analysis with thousands of MCMC chains. Matches version published in JCAP. 23 pages, 8 figure

Towards the Future of Supernova Cosmology

For future surveys, spectroscopic follow-up for all supernovae will be extremely difficult. However, one can use light curve fitters, to obtain the probability that an object is a Type Ia. One may consider applying a probability cut to the data, but we show that the resulting non-Ia contamination can lead to biases in the estimation of cosmological parameters. A different method, which allows the use of the full dataset and results in unbiased cosmological parameter estimation, is Bayesian Estimation Applied to Multiple Species (BEAMS). BEAMS is a Bayesian approach to the problem which includes the uncertainty in the types in the evaluation of the posterior. Here we outline the theory of BEAMS and demonstrate its effectiveness using both simulated datasets and SDSS-II data. We also show that it is possible to use BEAMS if the data are correlated, by introducing a numerical marginalisation over the types of the objects. This is largely a pedagogical introduction to BEAMS with references to the main BEAMS papers.Comment: Replaced under married name Lochner (formally Knights). 3 pages, 2 figures. To appear in the Proceedings of 13th Marcel Grossmann Meeting (MG13), Stockholm, Sweden, 1-7 July 201

Astronomaly at Scale: Searching for Anomalies Amongst 4 Million Galaxies

Modern astronomical surveys are producing datasets of unprecedented size and richness, increasing the potential for high-impact scientific discovery. This possibility, coupled with the challenge of exploring a large number of sources, has led to the development of novel machine-learning-based anomaly detection approaches, such as Astronomaly. For the first time, we test the scalability of Astronomaly by applying it to almost 4 million images of galaxies from the Dark Energy Camera Legacy Survey. We use a trained deep learning algorithm to learn useful representations of the images and pass these to the anomaly detection algorithm isolation forest, coupled with Astronomaly's active learning method, to discover interesting sources. We find that data selection criteria have a significant impact on the trade-off between finding rare sources such as strong lenses and introducing artefacts into the dataset. We demonstrate that active learning is required to identify the most interesting sources and reduce artefacts, while anomaly detection methods alone are insufficient. Using Astronomaly, we find 1635 anomalies among the top 2000 sources in the dataset after applying active learning, including 8 strong gravitational lens candidates, 1609 galaxy merger candidates, and 18 previously unidentified sources exhibiting highly unusual morphology. Our results show that by leveraging the human-machine interface, Astronomaly is able to rapidly identify sources of scientific interest even in large datasets.Comment: 15 pages, 9 figures. Comments welcome, especially suggestions about the anomalous source

New applications of statistics in astronomy and cosmology

Includes bibliographical references.Over the last few decades, astronomy and cosmology have become data-driven fields. The parallel increase in computational power has naturally lead to the adoption of more sophisticated statistical techniques for data analysis in these fields, and in particular, Bayesian methods. As the next generation of instruments comes online, this trend should be continued since previously ignored effects must be considered rigorously in order to avoid biases and incorrect scientific conclusions being drawn from the ever-improving data. In the context of supernova cosmology, an example of this is the challenge from contamination as supernova datasets will become too large to spectroscopically confirm the types of all objects. The technique known as BEAMS (Bayesian Estimation Applied to Multiple Species) handles this contamination with a fully Bayesian mixture model approach, which allows unbiased estimates of the cosmological parameters. Here, we extend the original BEAMS formalism to deal with correlated systematics in supernovae data, which we test extensively on thousands of simulated datasets using numerical marginalization and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling over the unknown type of the supernova, showing that it recovers unbiased cosmological parameters with good coverage. We then apply Bayesian statistics to the field of radio interferometry. This is particularly relevant in light of the SKA telescope, where the data will be of such high quantity and quality that current techniques will not be adequate to fully exploit it. We show that the current approach to deconvolution of radio interferometric data is susceptible to biases induced by ignored and unknown instrumental effects such as pointing errors, which in general are correlated with the science parameters. We develop an alternative approach - Bayesian Inference for Radio Observations (BIRO) - which is able to determine the joint posterior for all scientific and instrumental parameters. We test BIRO on several simulated datasets and show that it is superior to the standard CLEAN and source extraction algorithms. BIRO fits all parameters simultaneously while providing unbiased estimates - and errors - for the noise, beam width, pointing errors and the fluxes and shapes of the sources